Part II: A mandate from the street for change.
Can AMLO harness the street?
What the Mexican electorate granted AMLO and Morena last July the 1st was the space and a mandate for structural change that even the outgoing PRI government recognizesd.
Policy strand I
In that respect several policy strands appear to be emerging. First, internal security: AMLO has announced a series of forums to advance peace and reconciliation starting next month, late October 2018, with an amnesty law based on the advice of victims and international experts driven by victim’s rights, truth commissions, police structural change and the replacing of the military, who are returning to the barracks, by police in the drug war. As AMLO’s proposed head, Alfonzo Durazo, of the new public security department, la Secretaría de Suguridad Pública (SSP), notes, it is a strategy that moves away from the exclusive use of force. While well received by some; others have criticized the lack of detail, and question the need for more laws when the statute books contain numerous passed over the last two decades.
In this regard, Human rights activist Ruppert Knox makes several suggestions within AMLO’s powers after he becomes president later in the year. First, make progress in current investigation through an open and transparent manner, begin the process of truth commissions, use international experts, reduce government red tape to make current human rights laws and mechanisms more effective, and crack down on impunity within the security services though the attorney general’s office. All of this can be done without any legal changes, but will require the political will, and pressure from below, on AMLO’s part. But, to succeed here would be the first step to crafting a real stable democratic state that Mexico has been waiting for since 2000.
Policy strand II
The next strand emerging clusters around the U.S.-Mexico relations: immigration, security, commerce and development. Based on the contents of AMLO’s letter to President Trump the policy sets out to tackle immigration first through collective regional development (75% of spending) and security aid to tackle the issue. Second, AMLO called for a quick resolution to the NAFTA renegotiation on the basis that it will boost Mexican economic growth stemming U.S. bound immigration from Mexico. In this respect a host of Keynesian economic initiatives such as the free zone along the border, with higher wages and capped energy process, and rural road building programs, have been proposed. There are issues with some of these programs. The Istmo corridor proposal, for instance, will develop in partnership with the private sector, and this could lead to impacts on indigenous land rights and cause negative environmental impacts similar to other development projects in the region. A reminder of the constant TCC pressure AMLO has to juggle. Nevertheless, the seeds of a Keynes style program to revitalize the national economy is a step in the right direction to sustain a stable Mexican democracy. Third, AMLO’s proposal to withdrawal assistance in terms of security, immigration and drugs, with the U.S. signals a shift away from their neighbor; not just in terms of NAFTA, but also in global affairs as AMLO looks to resurrect Mexican national sovereignty.
Policy Strand III
The idea of returning to a strong and independent national sovereignty encapsulates the third policy strand of foreign affairs. AMLO has already suggested that he wants a return to an independent “national sovereignty”, to forge multi-polar relations globally. The shift from following the US unipolar line may have been difficult a few years ago, but under Trump, according to French investigator Christophe Ventura, an opportunity awaits for AMLO. This has emerged due to the shifting of the global geo-political system as Trump escalates the trade war against China and the European Union (E.U.). Two nations that would be happy to counter U.S. actions through increased investments and partnerships with Mexico. AMLO also appears to be reaching out to China with his proposed Istmo Corridor project which would connect global markets to the abundant resources being exploited in the Mexican southeast.
This element of AMLO´s foreign policy has a good chance of progression as fractions of the Chinese and the EU TCC stand to benefit greatly considering the resources and strategic location of Mexico in linking up global capitalist markets. Ventura notes the benefits for Mexico; reducing the country’s dependence on the U.S. market, protecting it against any economic downturns suffered by its northern neighbor. A result that would give AMLO the time and space he needs to allow his Keynesian program, an internal market strategy, to work within NAFTA’s export orientated framework.
Additionally, and perhaps more dangerous for AMLO, is the disruption his Latin America policy will create for the U.S. and its TCC allies in the region. For instance the U.S. bulwark in the region against leftist regimes, especially Venezuela and Nicaragua, will be downgraded without Mexico as one of its main proxies in the region doing its bidding. The knock-on effect is that direct intervention as suggested in previous months by the Trump administration will be harder to implement making the fight for Latin America, see part I, even harder.
The neoliberal contradiction.
How long AMLO has to make this set of polices work without outside interference is unknow. Despite all the concession to business it will not be easy curtailing voracious capitalist forces and keeping his electoral promises. On the contrary, capitals continued violent expansion in Mexico is what drove AMLO´s victory. Transforming the structural element of capital´s imperial power in Mexico; the permeation of neoliberalism into the political economy reinforced though a U.S. funded and designed anti-drug war themed counter-insurgency; is a big job that I am not sure AMLO will even scratch the surface of. But, this contradiction, between imperial power in Mexico and the popular sentiment behind AMLO´s victory, will almost certainly continue. Even now indigenous groups and other activists are preparing to fight the destruction of the homes and surrounding ecosystems by, not just the multi-national corporations, but also AMLO´s Keynesian/neoliberal economic plans. If AMLO can not contain the contradiction in capital´s favor and profits are hit they will come for him, once they get the chance, like we saw in Brazil and currently to Nicaragua. At this point he will need the people that gave him a mandate to be there behind him. If he can make progress in the three policy areas; internal security, U.S-Mexico relations, and foreign affairs, as they complement and feedback on each other; they should be there to defend him against onslaught of the forces of neoliberalism.
Stories of Resistance: México, neoliberalism & the war on drugs. 